Huckabee: Out to Stop Romney?

Way back when, when the candidates were declaring and Thompson was dragging his feet, I didn’t have any reason to question any motives of any of the candidates. They were in this to win the presidency. It was readily apparent that each of the candidates thought that they brought the right combination of abilities, experience, and philosophy that  they thought the presidential office needed.

Now, when I saw Huckabee campaigning dirty in Iowa, when I see him even today quietly nodding to the anti-Mormon sentiment out there, and otherwise bringing in a complete non-issue into the whole debate, it makes me wonder what he was really trying to accomplish. Did his goals change between then and now? Or does he still want to be president?

Why is it that it seems like Huckabee and McCain are playing tag-team against Romney? Why is it that in states where Huckabee is strong, McCain is nowhere to be found, and states where McCain is winning, Huckabee is strangely absent? Where are the attacks between the two supposed front-runners?

I came to the same conclusion that Article VI came to: Huckabee is either in it for VP, or he is in it to destroy the mormon candidate for being mormon. (link) (The other author–the evangelical–believes Huckabee simply wants the position of power that Jerry Falwell and the other national preachers enjoy.)

Would a guy actually run a campaign with the intent to sabotage another candidate? When it comes to anti-mormon bigotry, I don’t put anything off-limits. I have learned through sad experience that nothing seems to motivate quite like anti-mormon sentiment. People waste their lives on that kind of thing. Personally speaking, I don’t see the same kind of moral rot that most anti-mormons have in Huckabee, but I don’t really know who Huckabee really is. (I do see a possibility of that rot being there, however.)

Whether or not that was his original intention, or whether or not that has become his intention, it is certainly the effect that Huckabee has.

Let me explain it this way. You have the three wings of the conservative movement:

1. The Social Conservatives. These people are mostly interested in the pro-life issue, and other issues of morality and law enforcement. Obviously, these are mostly religious people. It’s what excites them the most.
2. The Fiscal Conservatives. These people are interested in free markets, free trade, and limited government in the marketplace. These are mostly business people, and mostly come from the middle to upper class. They know that money is power, and they’d like to keep that power in their bank.
3. The Defense Conservatives. These people look outside and see all kinds of  threats. They wonder why the social conservatives and fiscal conservatives don’t put a priority on immigration, border control, and the military. They want to see North Korea and Iran under intense pressure from our state department and our military.

Most conservatives are a mix of the three, but most have a priority.

If you were to line up the candidates based on where they would get the most support, you see a pattern develop.

Candidate	Social	Fiscal	Defense
Romney	Strong	Very Strong	Strong
Thompson	Strong	Strong	Very Strong
Giuliani	Moderate	Strong	Very Strong
McCain	Weak	Weak	Strong
Huckabee	Very Strong	Very Weak	Very Weak

Now, match up one candidate against another, and you will see how they will play the game. Romney vs. McCain: Romney emphasizes fiscal and social conservatism, while McCain hammers on defense. Thompson vs. Giuliani: Giuliani runs on defense and Thompson runs on social conservatism. Huckabee vs. Anyone: Huckabee champions social conservativism while the others try to organize fiscal and defense conservatives.

Do you see what role Huckabee is playing now? Romney and Thompson can’t emphasize their social conservatism–Huckabee has already motivated those voters. They are left running on fiscal or defense conservatism, areas which the two weak social conservatives have a good advantage.

In the end, if Romney or Thompson can’t convince the social conservatives to abandon Huckabee, well, they won’t be able to carry their social conservatism to the end game. That means social conservatives have to line up very strong behind Huckabee if they want to see a social conservative in the White House. But Huckabee isn’t well-rounded enough to carry the other two groups, and so he can’t make it to the White House. So by supporting Huckabee, who can’t go the distance, they lose their issue.

I know the Huckabee supporters won’t understand this. It’s not easy to play politics when God is on the line. But this is the game that we are playing, no matter how much we wish it were different. If your guy can’t get nominated or elected, you are better off choosing the next best candidate on your list.

I doubt that the later states will be as susceptible to Huckabee’s antics as they will see Huckabee is too weak to win. But he has already done significant damage, and from what I see in this area, he will continue to do damage until the party nominates its candidate.