Predictions

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Here’s a couple of my predictions, with a summary of what it all means below.

First, the Republican Party is going to win big this November, but the conservatives are going to win bigger. However, this isn’t quite enough to truly change our government.

The next two years will see a lot of fighting between the House and the President, the way it always should be. The House, of course, should always argue for lower taxes and less spending, as it will. There may be a budget battle, and the government may shut down. Regardless, in the end, the House will win again, as it always does, and we will see some significant tax cuts and a significant budget reduction.

Yes, a budget reduction. A real one, not a budget that grows more slowly, but a budget that is actually smaller than the one before.

This will truly send shockwaves throughout our economy and through the press. I don’t know when the last time the federal budget shrunk in size, but it was probably something like when Thomas Jefferson was president. The net effect will be our economy bouncing back as if 2007-2010 was a speed bump on the freeway.

However, there will be plenty of reasons for conservatives to despair. There will be a lot of things we don’t get that we wanted, and we’ll probably see yet another liberal get on the Supreme Court to replace an aging liberal. At the end of 2011, the conservatives will still be angry, although they are in more power than they’ve ever had, and we’ll be talking about throwing the bums out of congress.

Now, this is the interesting part: The Tea Party is not going away. They may have fewer rallies, and the rallies they do have will be less attended, but the Tea Party’s purpose isn’t to get people elected, it’s to remove people from office who don’t deserve to be elected. On the short list are senators like Orrin Hatch, who hasn’t been a friend of conservatives. There are others. As 2011 winds down, the Tea Party will be laying down plans to eliminate these voices of moderation within the Republican Party, just like they did in 2010.

As 2012 winds up, there will be chaos among the republican candidates for president. I don’t think Palin will run, although the list of names of people asking her to will be long. The one with the best chance to get the nomination is Romney, but he has been known to screw things up. Only a Romney-Palin-Limbaugh-Beck alliance will save Romney’s campaign, which I believe he will gladly accept. With Romney nominated, the presidential campaign heats up, and Romney destroys Obama in a Reagan-esque fashion with solid conservative principles. Obama is a footnote in our history books, a quirk like Jimmy Carter, an answer to a trivial pursuit card.

Don’t think there won’t be bumps in the road. As the Tea Party people already know, the democrats attack from one angle and then another, and never stop. The Tea Party is also hardly well-organized, and we will always see some infighting and disagreements. However, by the time 2012 winds down, the Tea Party people will all be familiar with these things and know how to handle them.

Romney as president with a conservative house and a less conservative but republican senate means a lot of reform. Maybe Romney will be able to reform the tax code to something simpler, fairer and cheaper.

On his plate, however, is Social Security and Medicare. And he will have to do something about those programs, which will mean dramatic reform. If anyone can do it, Romney can. In the end, we’ll have Social Security-lite and Medicare-lite, probably with some privatization to ensure that the people can build up their own reserves.

However, most significantly, we will see the roaring economy come back and in a new way. Perhaps the ’80s will no longer be the time that we look back to fondly, but a precursor to the ’10s in our history books. Reagan will be renamed as the founder of the Tea Party, and his policies will be called forward-thinking because ultimately, his ideals won out over the next 30 years.

I don’t know what the long-term future holds, but I can say this: America has fundamentally shifted its attitude towards the federal government. We are now free to say bad things about the federal government and not be treated as kooks. The libertarian message is going to be heard coming from more and more republican lips, and the chance that some of the economic principles will be implemented is high.

I will, however, predict this. America will likely never elect a progressive president again. America will likely never elect a congress that is far-left again. America will also be much more careful with her budget, and the top priority is going to be eliminating the national debt so that no child born has a debt on their shoulders. And the debt will be eliminated not just through tax cuts to increase tax revenue, but through spending cuts.

Now, what this means for us.

  1. Do not despair.
  2. Realize that the Tea Party principles are popular now, and will win if you help them win.
  3. Realize that America is at a turning point, and the Democrats know it. After 2010, the chances of getting a liberal in power is very, very slim. The best the Democrats can hope for a is a slightly less-than-conservative president.
  4. Realize that you won’t get everything at once, but that doesn’t mean you need to stop asking for it and holding those accountable who fail to deliver. The price of freedom is eternal vigilance.

My dream is to see an America with a federal government that is distant and tiny. Among all the governments in our land, the federal government should be the smallest. My dream is to see those principles translated to the state governments, so that even state governments are distant and small.

My dream is to see every progressive program repealed and replaced with raw freedom and liberty. I want a country where the governments own only enough land to build their seats of power, and that’s it. The rest is inhabited by and owned by the people.

My dream is to live my life paying less than 1% of what I earn in taxes, and that only to local authorities.

My dream is to see America be the paragon of freedom. Countries like Hong Kong and Singapore with their economic freedoms will be less desirable than the US of A.

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2 Responses to “Predictions”

  1. demo kid Says:

    At the end of 2011, the conservatives will still be angry, although they are in more power than they’ve ever had, and we’ll be talking about throwing the bums out of congress.

    Which will mean that conservatives will be thrown out of power. I consider that to be a win.

    • Jonathan Gardner Says:

      It will be a long time before conservatives have complete control of the federal government. Reagan never had a large majority in the house and senate, at least not of conservatives, Bush II never did either. We have only had a handful of very conservative senators and house members at any given time.

      After 2010, we will have a much larger representation in the congress than ever before. But we won’t have a conservative majority and with a liberal president, it wouldn’t matter if we did.

      After 2012, we may even have a strong conservative president, or at least a president who will allow the house to move forward with conservative issues. But we still won’t have a conservative majority in the house and senate.

      It will be many years before we have a conservative president and a conservative congress, one that actually believes the words in the constitution mean what they say. When that day comes, we will, of course, have to move quickly to repeal all the unconstitutional laws and programs and dramatically shrink the federal government until it almost disappears.

      The point is that we have to continue to refine congress, removing those who are less than conservative from the Republican Party and being sure to support those who are. At the same time, we have to move the Democratic Party towards the conservative side by eliminating the most liberal elements.

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