Here is what I see happening in 2012.
One, Romney is the winner. Michelle Bachmann or Sarah Palin are second. That means they’ll be in a key position that gives them a distinct advantage after Romney is done, whether that be 2016 or 2024.
Two, Obama is done. There is just so many stupid things he has said and done over his first term, and he hasn’t learned yet how to create a coalition. It is clear that he was swept into office and not by his own power. I think he is hoping the mysterious forces that swept him into office will be present in 2012, and he will be wrong.
Three, the congress will likely shift towards the Republican Party by the time November 2012 is over. That means Romney will be president, the senate and house republican.
Why? Too many democrat seats are up, and the democrats are very, very weak this year. Compare 2012 to 6 years ago–2006. In 2006, the people were revolting over President Bush’s spending policies and his failure to secure a quick victory in Iraq. In 2006, the conservatives checked out, myself included, and washed their hands of the Republican Congress. We were tired of the spending and the deficits. We wanted a balanced budget. We wanted Social Security and Medicare solvent. And instead they did something else.
I really can’t see a way for democrats to carry their flag forward this year. It all depends, really, on how well the republican house does. If they stick to their guns, and if they continue to hammer the economy, taxes, debt, and the solvency of America and its entitlement programs, they will win. In that regard, I expect we’ll see a lot more Paul Ryan and a lot less Boehner.