Perry v. Romney (and others)

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It’s really funny when I read about Perry calling Romney someone who’s been inside the beltway. Apart from his 4 years as governor, Romney hasn’t spent a day in any elected position in any government. Perry, on the other hand, has over twenty years experience as an elected official in one role or another.

I think that Perry’s high ratings in the polls are numbered. Romney is giving him some room to breath, a calm before the storm, so to speak. As people become familiar with who Perry really is and what is policies really were, he’ll fall in the polls leaving Romney the last man standing.

I wish this were simply speculation, but judging one what other republican insiders see, this is the likely result. If you want to run for the GOP position, you have to build up a network and name recognition well before the campaign season starts. The GOP is a huge, fragmented organization, not a top-down structure like what the democrats have. It is more difficult, I believe, to unite the GOP behind you as a presidential candidate, than to get the rest of the country to elect you.

Sarah Palin, I believe, may likely run this year. I don’t join with her critics in condemning her or her positions or her record. As far as presidential candidates go, she would make a fine president. I hope she runs. By doing so, that will mean the 2016/2020 ticket will be full of good, prepared candidates. To be honest, I believe the Romney./Palin ticket would sweep the country.

Michele Bachmann, unfortunately, is ending up as a Ron Paul, Jr. I don’t see her campaign getting put together, I don’t see her making the strategic moves, and I don’t see her effectively selling herself to the larger GOP audience. She should stick with her state politics, focus on becoming a house leader, and let that be her life’s achievement. If she keeps her nose clean, then ten, twenty years from now she can be a real contender, much more likely than Newt Gingrich. I wouldn’t say that a house-to-president run is impossible, only very unlikely, and only after you’ve been speaker of the house or some other very high ranking house member, and only if you’ve built a solid network before declaring.

Speaking of which, Ron Paul is really doing what only Ron Paul can do. I hope he takes his leadership and power and uses it to make real change. I think Paul was given a tremendous chance on fed oversight panel, and he should focus mostly on that and organizing his troops to see that we get an honest-to-gosh fiscal conservative in office, everywhere. The Paulians are really earning a name for themselves. This derogatory term will soon be a badge of honor if they continue with their ways.

I want to emphasize something here. There are several political factions, but only 2 that I know of that will actually see results. Of course, there’s the Tea Party, but more importantly, and I think, at the heart of the Tea Party, are the Paulians. They are running for office, taking seats one by one, building foundations that will give them an enormous amount of power. I know several Paulians, and to be honest, if you want to try to win the GOP without their support, you will find your victory Pyrrhic at best.

I am not a Paulian, I don’t support much of the Libertarian or Ron Paul platform, but I do agree, wholeheartedly, on cutting the federal budget, and so I find association with the Paulians to be beneficial.

Herman Cain is wholly unsuited for this vicious business. I get the sense, based on what I am seeing, that he is a good person, may make a wonderful president, but is not oriented towards the political way of doing things. Did he expect the GOP candidates and factions to treat him with kid gloves? I don’t know that he really understands the depth of corruption that politics is. I am sure he is learning, and by the end of this year, will probably be more fit to be elected than almost any other leader in the GOP.

He has two opportunities: One, he can shift the debate and focus of the presidential race. Mission accomplished, but there is more he can do. Two, he can build the foundation for partnering with existing political forces already at work. Some are saying that the Romney-Cain machine would be unstoppable. I would hope Cain effectively integrates with at least Romney, but others as well. I believe Cain as a spokesperson for the Tea Party might be an ideal role. Along with Bachmann, Palin, and Paul, these outside-the-beltway types can really stir things up.

The liberal strategy is to divide the right by religion and ad hominem. They will try to stick as many wedges as they can between the factions and leaders. I don’t think it is going to work, principally because the factions won’t let it work. Yes, the Tea Party and the Paulians and the Country-Club Republicans and the pro-lifers and the NOM and everyone is viciously focused on their goals, but they know, at the heart of the matter, the enemy #1 to their political goals is Obama and the democratic-controlled congress and state houses.

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